Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Separating the wheat from the chaff
With three weeks now down in this long season, we are starting to approach the point at which you can look at your team and start deciding on the strengths and weaknesses. Some of the early hot-hitters are starting to regress, whilst the slow-starters are rounding into some form. We still have Chris Johnson hitting .438 and Jason Heyward hitting .115, but on the whole, most players will begin to move towards their true value in the coming weeks. However, this also tends to be one of the worst points of the season for injuries. Players like Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke, Jose Reyes, Aramis Ramirez, Michael Bourn, Aaron Hill and numerous others have hit the disabled list recently, although some teams may be finally getting a boost from the returning Brett Lawrie, Chase Headley and David Ortiz. What all this means, is now is as good a time as any to be scouring the waiver wire for hot pickups, and scouring other teams for buy-low candidates and even your own team for sell-high players.
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Dexter Fowler
Can you say red hot? Fowler has just fifteen hits this season, but an incredible seven of them have left the park, a stat made more shocking by the fact that Fowler had a career high of 13 last season. The potential has always been there for the toolsy center fielder who possesses a good power/speed combination, but this kind of incredible power surge goes beyond my widest imaginations. You have to think this unsustainable pace will slow eventually, with 20 home runs the likely end result for Fowler, but if you own him you should be happy to listen to any and all offers for him. The term sell high was created for a player like Fowler.
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Todd Frazier
Frazier’s name was a popular sleeper candidate heading into the season, after he garnered some rookie of the year momentum in 2012. Finally given everyday playing time, Frazier has smoked the ball to start the season, hitting a cool .298 with five home runs. After recording hits in each of his first six games, Frazier has actually cooled off a little since, with hits in just three of his past eight games. The average is unlikely to remain much above .270 this season, but playing at the heart of a powerful line-up in a hitter-friendly park should give Frazier plenty of home run and RBI opportunities, so don’t completely disregard this hot start.
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Clay Buchholz
Clay Buchholz had a dominant spring training, and like his battery-mate Jon Lester, he has been able to carry this form into the regular season too. After a strong seven inning performance earned him the win against the Yankees to start the year, Buchholz has gone from strength to strength, shutting down the hot Orioles line-up over seven innings, before taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Rays, striking out eleven in a masterful performance. He does have a tendency to walk too many hitters, which will damage his WHIP, but he should be a good chance at plenty of wins with Boston, and the ERA might be dazzling if he can keep this hot start going.
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Paul Maholm
Maholm is about as unsexy a pick as you find in fantasy baseball, but he has been quietly superb to kickstart the season. Through 20.1 innings he is yet to allow an earned run, and has actually struck out 20 in that time too. He isn’t going to contend for the Cy Young award, but he is a pitcher who has learnt to pitch to his strengths and is reaping the benefits. Playing for the Braves should keep him ticking along in the ‘wins’ column, so if you can still grab him at something close to a bargain, don’t be afraid to do so.
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Andrew Bailey
With Joel Hanrahan sidelines with hamstring tightness, Bailey has been granted a chance at the closer’s role and he has run with it. Through 7.1 innings this season he has allowed just one earned run and struck out 12, closing both his last two opportunities in the process. After a lost 2012 season, it’s easy to forget that Bailey was one of the more reliable ninth inning men in baseball when with the Athletics, so the Red Sox may decide to keep him in the role as long as his success continues. If he’s still on the waiver wire then snap him up, but bear in mind that the return of Hanrahan could see him resigned to the eight inning role once more.
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Mike Moustakas
After a promising 2012 campaign in which Moustakas hit 20 home runs, expectations were high for a further improvement this season. So far, however, Moose has struggled at the plate, hitting just .178 with no home runs. Eventually he will break out of this prolonged slump, but if there are better options available on your bench or the waiver wire, don’t be afraid to cut him, because the average can be a killer. I think the power is legit, but like Pedro Alvarez, there will be maddening cold streaks.
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Jason Kipnis
Having flashed an enticing power/speed combo at a premium position last season, Kipnis flew off draft boards this pre-season as fantasy players gambled on a monster year. So far, Kipnis has been a major disappointment, hitting just .125 with no homers or steals. He is also now struggling with an elbow injury, which he dealt with during Spring Training, and this must be a concern for fantasy owners. Assuming he can put this issue behind him, Kipnis should be able to bounce back towards last years numbers, but the hopes that he would vault into the elite tier of second basemen seem a bit premature.
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Jarrod Parker
After a strong rookie season atop the Oakland rotation, hopes were high that Parker could continue with that strong vein of form this season. So far, he has been disappointing, with just four strikeouts in 11.2 innings, as he has given up fourteen earned runs along the way. He took a beating from the strong Tigers line-up last time out, and has failed to get though more than five innings so far this year, leaving many fantasy owners panicking. Whilst this poor start is concerning, all the signs are that Parker is just leaving too many pitches over the strike zone, as the stuff doesn’t seem to be diminished. He should be able to turn this funk around, but for the moment he should be considered nothing more than a match-up play until he can prove he can turn a line-up over twice.
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Matt Cain
Usually the model of consistency, Matt Cain has been one of the more frustrating pitchers so far this season. After a fine opening day start when he shut down the Dodgers, he allowed nine runs to the Cards in just 3.2 innings. He bounced back with a strong seven inning performance against the Cubs, but most recently got taken apart by the Brewers for seven runs over six innings. Cain doesn’t have the same dazzling strikeout stuff that the likes of Verlander and Strasburg to, so when he is unable to keep the fastball down it can lead to hits and plenty of them. His next start, at home to Arizona is more favourable, and I expect him to get back on track soon and become the ace pitcher we all expected of him.
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Mitchell Boggs
The pre-season injury to Jason Motte made Boggs an early sleeper for saves as the closer on a strong Cardinals team. After a few solid early season outings, Boggs had a horror show against the Reds when he allowed six runs to score whilst earning just a single out. From there, his hold on the closer job has been questionable at best, and after a further blown save against Milwaukee, the job appears to have been passed on to Edward Mujica who has been more solid than either Boggs or Rosenthal so far this year. The future of the Cardinals ‘pen is cloudy at best, and it appears likely they will roll with the hot hand until further notice.
