Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Finding Their Range

Although we are still just two weeks into the season, fantasy owners are beginning to get a better understanding of which players on their team are performing above expectations, and which are refusing to pull their weight. With most hitters recording just 40 at bats or so in the young season, jumping to hasty conclusions is a dangerous thing to do, but it’s important to separate those who are just enjoying a hot start with those that on the precipice of a monstrous season…

1. Coco Crisp

   I expected Crisp to struggle to earn consistent playing time in a crowded Oakland outfield, but he has started every game for the A’s this season, and is taking full advantage of his opportunity. He homered in four straight games earlier this week, and has a .318 average to go with 14 runs and 2 steals. The 14 runs lead the Major Leagues, and whilst Crisp has some pop, I don’t expect him to get much higher than 12-15 homers this season, so don’t be fooled by the power surge. However, he is a speedster, and if he can keep up this consistent playing time, he could be a good source of speed, average and runs. If there are other owners willing to buy his hot start, then by all means sell high, because I don’t see this power streak continuing much longer.

2. John Buck

   Although guys like Chris Davis and Coco Crisp are surprise early season candidates for fantasy super-stardom, no name in baseball has been as shocking as John Buck’s in the early showings. Buck has mashed five home runs, including three in the past three games and he is not only the number one catcher in fantasy at the moment, but one of the top five players. Buck does have some power, and playing at Citi field allows it to play up better than at cavernous Marlins Park. But this current rate is unsustainable, especially considering he has a .375 average, which simply isn’t Buck’s game. The average is going to dip, and whilst he is a good bet for 15-20 homer power if he gets consistent playing time, this hot start is by no means the beginnings of an MVP-calibre season. Ride the streak if you own Buck, but don’t be fooled by this early season firework show.

3. Sergio Romo

   Romo leads the league with six saves, and his 0.00 ERA and 0.33 WHIP are testament to his hot start. As I type this, he has just blown his first save of the season against the Cubs, although it was his seventh appearance in eleven days so he can perhaps be cut some slack. His devastating slider continues to be a nightmare for right-handed hitters, and playing for the Giants should allow him more save opportunities than for most other teams. Bochy has indicated a desire to keep Romo’s innings restricted this year, but with the Giants set to contend once again, I find it unlikely they would bench their best reliever, particularly at the end of the season. He isn’t quite in the same league as Kimbrel or Chapman, but I think Romo’s early results are legitimate, so if you can still buy low, he’s a great target.

4. Matt Harvey

   Matt Harvey was pure dominance in his short time in the Majors last season, with a sparkling 2.73 ERA and 70 punch-outs in 53 innings. So far this season, he has proved that his 2012 exploits were no fluke, giving up just one run in 14 dominant innings, whilst striking out 19. His heavy fastball that runs into the upper nineties allows him to blow hitters away early in games, and his filthy slider makes him nearly unhittable for right handers. There will come a time when he meets an obstacle, but given this incredible start to his big-league career, I find it likely Harvey will have few issues adjusting when he needs to.

5. Barry Zito

   After a couple of woeful seasons that left Zito’s rotation spot in doubt, he began to turn his fortunes around down the stretch in 2012, and his post-season heroics were well documented. So far in 2013, he is yet to allow an earned run, throwing 14 scoreless innings. The strikeout potential isn’t huge – despite this dominant start he has only eight strikeouts – but Zito has learned that he is a different pitcher than he was back in his Cy Young days, and he is reaping the benefits. He’s likely available in most fantasy leagues, but I would consider him a match-up play only, because he still has the propensity to allow a crooked scoreline in three innings and ruin your ERA/WHIP. However, if he continues to pitch effectively, then he may force fantasy owners to sit up and watch.

1. Aaron Hicks

   After a strong spring training, Aaron Hicks was named the starting center fielder in Minnesota and immediately became a popular draft-day name. So far this season, he has struggled mightily however, hitting just .051 with two hits on the year. The enticing power/speed combo he flashed in March has all but evaporated, and he may well be sent down to the Minors if he is unable to turn this funk around. If he’s still taking up one of your roster spots, don’t be afraid to drop him.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

   There were some concerns entering the season that Giancarlo Stanton might struggle, with no line-up support whatsoever and perhaps a lack of incentive after the firesale off-season in Miami. So far, he has given those concerns some momentum, as he is hitting just .167 with no home runs and a recent shoulder injury is yet more reason for pessimism. I’m still all-in on Stanton though, and I think he still has a legitimate chance to hit 35 if not 40 home runs, even in a cavernous home ball park. Slow starts are nothing new to Stanton, and all power hitters tend to be streaky, so I have no doubts that he’ll begin to rake soon and the worries will diminish. If his owner in your league is panicking, I’d be tempted to see if you can buy him cheap, because there are few players in the game with his power.

3. Roy Halladay

   Halladay was a bit of a sleeper heading into this season, after slipping down draft boards due to his 2012 injury and mediocre performances. So far, however, he has proven to be the biggest pitching bust of them all, sitting on an eye-watering 14.63 ERA after his first two starts. After recording one of the more bizarre pitching lines of the season against Atlanta (3.1 innings pitched, 6 hits, 5 earned runs, 9 strikeouts) he was just as bad against the Mets, but with less strikeouts, allowing seven runs in just four innings. The diminished velocity is part of a wide range of issues, and the fact that he is unstartable this weekend in Miami says a lot about the state of his pitching. He is a hard player to drop, but until he turns this around he should be sat on your bench.

4. David Price

   After being a little inconsistent in his first start against Baltimore, Price was awful against Cleveland, allowing eight runs to cross the plate on ten hits in just five innings. His stuff just wasn’t there against a line-up that is usually weaker against left-handed pitching, and the two home runs he gave up were the killer blows. It doesn’t get any easier with a trip to Boston up next, but Price owners will just have to bear it, and hope his fortunes turn around soon.

5. Greg Holland

   After blowing a save against Philadelphia last week, Holland’s grip on the closer role began to slip a little, and he has done nothing to assure fantasy owners since then. The following day he got just one out as he allowed two hits and an earned run and had to be bailed out by Kelvin Herrera, and then on Tuesday he earned the save but gave up a hit and issued two walks. Holland has good stuff, but he is part of an extremely talented Royals bullpen, and Herrera in particular is a perfectly viable replacement. Holland is someone who needs to be owned because he does still hold the closer’s mantle, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Herrera began to get a sniff of more save opportunities should Holland’s struggles continue.

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