Wild Card Weekend preview

Saturday 9:30pm

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

This is probably the closest game of the weekend, and we got a preview of what could happen in week 14, when these two teams played out a 20-19 road win for the Texans. This should be a story of two good defenses and two good running games. Arian Foster and Cedric Benson have both had good regular seasons, and it may well come down to whoever has the better day.

One indicator we could look at is the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals are 0-7 against teams that have made the playoffs, so to win this one; they will have to take the next step up to the elite level. Andy Dalton and AJ Green have been excellent all season, but up against Wade Phillips, they will have to play at a consistent and exceptional level for all four quarters, which is something that they are yet to do this season.

T.J Yates has slotted in well into the Texans’ offense, playing more of a game-management role as his two running backs Foster and Ben Tate have controlled the tempo, but going into the playoffs, it is certain that the rookie will have to show everyone a little more, and especially against a team with as good a defense as the Bengals.

On balance, the Texans have an edge with home-field advantage and a better running back tandem, however, if the Bengals can click on offense, they could cause Houston a lot of problems, as they would have done in week 14, where Cincinnati took two or three field goals from promising positions. Their strength is also their rush defense, and if they can neutralise the Texans running game to any extent, they will have a real shot at a game against New England in the divisional round. I’m going to side with Andy Dalton’s men on this one, strengthening his claims for rookie of the year.

Verdict: Cincinnati Bengals 19-16 Houston Texans

Sunday 1:00am

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

For those of you who enjoy seeing the ball in the air A LOT, this is the game for you. It’s got shootout written all over it. No weather to contend with in a dome, two QB’s who are throwing ridiculous yardage right now and two questionable defenses all add up to an entertaining showdown.

The Lions QB Matt Stafford threw for 520 yards and 4 TD’s against the ‘world champion’ Green Bay Packers last week, but he will be wise not to engage in such a track meet again, because Drew Brees being on the field almost certainly equates to points right now. The Lions will have to try and run the ball to take as much time off the clock as possible, but in terms of the running game, I have been impressed by the Saints’ Chris Ivory recently, and he could be a surprise X-Factor in this game.

This is because the Lions will put priority on getting pressure towards the pocket to make sure Brees doesn’t have too much time to throw, and with pressure comes holes for runners to exploit. I could see Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles breaking off some big gains.

The Saints won the first meeting this season between the two clubs 31-17, but I think this one could be closer and with more points. If the Lions are to have any chance, they will need Nadamukong Suh on his best form and on his best behaviour, if Detroit are penalised as much as they were back in week 13, they will be comprehensively beaten.

The return of Louis Delmas to the defense could be a huge boost for the Lions, but I’m not sure it will be enough to beat the Saints in the Superdome.

Verdict: Detroit Lions 27-38 New Orleans Saints

Sunday 6:00pm

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

The Giants were impressive when beating the Cowboys last week to secure this wildcard game against the Falcons, with their pass rush making Tony Romo run a marathon just to get a throw off. If the Falcons are to cause what many people see as an upset, they will have to protect Matt Ryan better than the Cowboys protected Romo, otherwise it will be difficult for Atlanta to get their main points scorers, Julio Jones and Roddy White, into the game, no matter how suspect the Giants’ pass defense may be.

The Atlanta defense has also been quietly making strides, admittedly against poorer teams, but it could still be a factor if the Falcons can limit the Giants’ receivers. They will have to get pressure to Eli Manning, as the younger of the Manning brothers has built a reputation for delivering when it matters.

The Giants will struggle to get their running game going against the no. 8 ranked rush defense in the NFL, but if Michael Turner can step it up, he could find some success against the Giants, who have been poor against the run this season. This could enable Atlanta to control the clock and dictate the direction of the game.

Although many are giving this game to the Giants, I just have a sneaking feeling that Mike Smith’s team have been improving all year, and if they can use the running game well, they finally have a stage to prove it on.

Verdict: Atlanta Falcons 27-24 New York Giants

Sunday 9:30pm

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

This is the acid test for Tim Tebow, a playoff game on the biggest stage against a Pittsburgh team that have been labelled as ‘ageing’ and ‘slow’. If he really is the NFL starting calibre QB that John Elway has now decided he is, he has to show it on Sunday night.

The Broncos’ defense will have to return to playing at the level of a few weeks ago to let him have any chance of keeping it close, ready for ‘Tebow Time’. Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller have a chance of getting to the ailing Ben Roethlisberger, whose ankle is certainly not going to be at 100%, and if they do, the loss of Rashard Mendenhall could be felt a lot more keenly than the Steelers are admitting.

Many have labelled Isaac Redman as a more ‘Pittsburgh’ style of running back, and he’ll have to prove it here against one of the best run defenses in the league. On the other hand, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emanuel Sanders are three of the most dynamic playmakers in the AFC and will give the Steelers a chance to score points in a manner only the Patriots and Bills have done against Denver recently.

If Pittsburgh can stop Willis McGahee’s revival, they should have an excellent chance of winning, but a lot will depend on the health of Roethlisberger. He would play through anything, but a fit Big Ben is much better than a hobbled one.

Verdict: Pittsburgh Steelers 27-13 Denver Broncos