View From the Shires: The MLS Playoff Picture
In trying to replicate American sports culture, MLS’ push for parity has certainly incurred its fair share of critics over the years. Some argue that systems such as the salary cap and roster restrictions for foreign and designated players are merely a façade for the lack of quality on display, yet that still fails to prevent complaints that the league is all too eager to bend the rules for the so-called ‘big boys’ like Seattle, LA and New York when the opportunity presents itself (see the recent furore surrounding Clint Dempey’s summer transfer to the Sounders).
Nevertheless, others will tell you, and rightly so, that MLS’ competiveness is what ultimately makes it such an appealing follow. Unlike in England, Spain or any other league across Europe, just about every team is capable of winning or losing on any given day or night, against any given opposition. Call it perfect mediocrity if you will but there’s no question that it usually makes for a lively playoff race and no year has that been more evident than in 2013, where we’re undoubtedly in the middle one of the most exciting finishes MLS has ever seen.
With only a few weeks left of the season, only one side has clinched a post-season spot (five teams from each division qualify), while all but three are still mathematically alive. Furthermore, of all the teams currently sitting in the playoff positions, only the Portland Timbers have lost less than nine games and that’s largely due to having chalked up a league-leading 14 draws.
The number of different possible scenarios which could unfold before every team has played their 34th and final regular season game are certainly mind-boggling but, looking at the tables, week 32 at least injected some air of clarity over what may unfold:
In the East, Chicago are still alive, but their hopes are largely dependent on Philadelphia stumbling in one of their three remaining games against DC United (A), Montreal (H) and Sporting KC (A). New England meanwhile aren’t out of it but, with games against Montreal (A) and Columbus (H and A), they face a mighty tough ask.
Columbus themselves however look for all intents and purposes like they’re set to miss out on the playoffs for a second consecutive season, with their recent resurgence under interim head coach Brian Bliss just coming too late on to make that crucial bit of difference.
With Houston on their seemingly annual late-season push, Dominic Kinnear’s side are likely certain to join New York and KC in the post-season but Montreal are without a win in four and, despite a game in hand, face a nervy finish to the season against New England (H), Los Angeles (A), Philadelphia (A) and Toronto (A). It may look like Toronto have nothing to play for but Ryan Nelsen’s side will certainly be playing for pride and would undoubtedly love nothing more than to upset their Canadian rivals on the final day of the season.
In the West though, things are a bit clearer. Both Vancouver and Dallas now look to be toast, after draws against Real Salt Lake and Portland, respectively, this past weekend pushed them yet further adrift. San Jose’s final three games against Colorado (H), Los Angeles (A) and Dallas (H) give them a decent shot to sneak in but they’ll likely need to take a maximum nine points to stand a chance. The Rapids though, fresh of a shock 5-1 win over Seattle on Saturday, will prove a tough opponent to knock off, while it would a huge upset if the three-peat-seeking LA Galaxy failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
Ultimately, while the hunt for those final few spots may not be as close as we expected a couple of weeks ago, the fact that all those teams in the mix are so closely bunched together will mean this post-season will certainly be an intriguing and tough-to-predict one. No one has truly distinguished themselves from the pack and it wouldn’t be at all outlandish to suggest that a team who sneaks in through the back door stands just as much chance of winning MLS Cup as the eventual winners of the Supporters’ Shield (the award for the side with the best regular season record), just as the Rapids so aptly demonstrated in 2010. The Likes of the Galaxy and the Sounders might possess the front-line firepower which prompts the media to label them the frontrunners to go all the way but, as has been demonstrated many times before, MLS is a league where to dub any team clear favourites in the playoffs would prove mighty foolish.