UK American Sports Fantasy: Football Start or Sit Week 2
So week 1 of fantasy football was wild with some players emerging and some seemingly evaporating before our very eyes. The first week of fantasy is hard to predict because everything we see in preseason is often a lie by offences to not give anything away and so people who appear to be big parts of the offence end up on the shelf and guys who have been hidden come to the fore.
Firstly I would like to thank people for the kind words about the article last week and just explain the change in format this week. I decided to do a few words about each tier for each position because I always want to know why people have placed certain guys where they have in their rankings and I feel this allows me to do that in what I hope is a fun and interesting way. Along the way I have tried to say who I am high on and who I am down on.
QB
Studs: Rodgers, Brees, P.Manning, Newton
Four fairly obvious guys with good match ups so you can expect high 20s minimum.
Safe: Brady, Ryan, RG3, Luck, Romo, Stafford, E.Manning, Kaepernick, Wilson, Vick
Brady would be a stud if he had receivers to throw too. Manning is in this group due to the fact his 3 receivers should be too much for the Denver defence. Vick in that offence against a Chargers defence on a short week travelling across the country is something to think starting him for. The other 7 guys have good enough match ups to prevent them slipping a tier but not good enough to be a stud.
Deep: Bradford, Manuel, Cutler, Tannehill, A.Smith, Rivers, Schaub, Freeman, Palmer, Pryor, Roethlisberger, Dalton
Not much to say about this group really other than I am a bit worried about Big Ben with his O-line. At least three of these will put up numbers as good as the safe guys. If I had to guess I’d say Cutler, Dalton and Bradford. Pryor’s legs lift him out of the lower tier but I am still a little dubious about his arm.
Do Not Start: Weeden, Flacco, Ponder, Locker, Geno, Gabbert, Henne
I want to see more from Geno before I even think about starting him. Hate Flacco’s match up and I just plain do not trust the other guys and couldn’t see how they would be as good as the guys above.
RB
Studs: Peterson, McCoy, Foster, Bush, Forte, Morris, Martin
Peterson will score every week you feel, McCoy could be a monster every week in that offence, Foster showed he was healthy and if they hadn’t got down early he would have had more chance at scoring Monday. IF healthy Bush could be the steal of the year in that offence and the other three have good match ups and should put up big numbers and score.
Safe: S.Jackson, T.Richardson, Rice, Spiller, Murray, Charles, Sproles, McFadden, Gore, Lynch, Ridley, C.Johnson, MJD
I’m scared of T-Rich until I see more from Weeden and Gordon gets back. Vereen’s injury helps keep Ridley as a safe guy because I cannot see NE going without either of their best two RB’s. Rice slips down here due his tough match up with Cleveland and Spiller against Carolina is a similar story. Charles should be solid if he plays but the injury worries me. If the SF/SEA game turns into a shootout Lynch may lose opportunities but expect him and Gore to both be solid.
Flex: D.Richardson, Wilson, Williams, Lacy, Miller, Mendenhall, Ingram, Mathews, Tate, Green-Ellis
St. Louis utilised Richardson a lot and if you could guarantee to me he would see 75% of the snaps at RB he would be a safe start but Pead concerns me. Wilson’s fumbling worries me enough to drop him down one tier when combined with the shootout in the meadowlands that is bound to happen. I expect Tate to see enough carries that he would be a flex if I had injury problems. BJGE did not look good but I feel they will keep giving him the goal line touches and that’s a big plus. The other guys I need to see more from if they are to climb a tier in the future.
Deep: Bradshaw, Ivory, M.Bush, Pierce, Bernard, F.Jackson, Brown, Thomas, Ball, Moreno, Hunter, Blount, Scott, D.Thomas, Powell
Majority of this tier just will not see enough carries for me to want to start them in a 10 teamer but I would consider them in anything deeper for sure. If Scott is named the starter then he swaps with Wilson in the tier above. If Ridley fumbles again then Blount has a real opportunity to be fantasy viable. D.Thomas will likely see the goal line work and in semi deep leagues you have to love those kinds of players. Powell is an Ivory injury away from being a 10 team flex play because Geno’s legs will really help a player like him.
20+: Hillman, Pitt RB’s, Tanner, Battle, Greene, R.Brown
Hillman is the number 3 guy in a timeshare, No Pitt RB’s until I see Le’Veon Bell back, Battle will likely pilfer the goal line work again but I’m not sure the Titans get their much, Greene seems to have slipped into obscurity and R.Brown is more of a blocking back for the Chargers so don’t expect much (if any) production.
WR
Studs: C.Johnson, Bryant, Green, Marshall, D.Thomas, Ju.Jones
With White’s injury Julio joins the five main guys as a stud this week. Bryant’s injury worries me but if he’s active I don’t think he goes two weeks without a TD. As for Calvin, he CANNOT keep being denied TD’s and that will help him even when he is triple covered.
Safe: S.Smith, Garcon, Cobb, Wayne, A.Johnson, Colston, V.Jackson, Fitzgerald, Welker, Decker, Nicks, Cruz, Boldin, Nelson, D.Jackson
My biggest worry in this group is Decker because I feel at best he is the 3rd receiving option in this offence and possibly the 4th behind Julius Thomas as well. Welker, Nicks and Cruz will be involved in a shootout against a still weakened defence. Garcon, Nelson and Cobb are also likely to be involved in a shootout against weak secondaries so expect big scores there. Jackson will see lots of short passes which someone with his talent should turn into long plays. The other guys in this group have good match ups and therefore should put up solid numbers. IF Amendola plays he is part of this group for sure.
Flex: White, T.Austin, Givens, S.Johnson, Wallace, Bowe, M.Austin, M.Williams, Hartline
White’s heel injury means for a couple of weeks he is at best a flex and possibly even less in a 10 teamer but it’s hard to sit him even in shallow formats. T.Austin and Givens will be involved enough in the offence to make them both fantasy worthy. Johnson’s, Wallace’s and Bowe’s situations concern me enough that I’d hesitate to start them as a WR but if I don’t have better options at flex I’d take the risk on their talent. M.Austin, Williams and Hartline are secondary receivers in their offences but they will benefit enough from coverage rolled away from them to make them viable.
Deep: Edelman, Thompkins, Douglas, Baldwin, G.Tate, Woods, Jeffery, Hankerson, Ja.Jones, Hilton, A.Brown, Wright, Britt, Moore, Washington, Stills, Floyd, Randle, Moore, V.Brown, E.Sanders, Simpson, Sanu, Jennings, Streeter, Burleson
All of these guys have the ability to put up huge numbers but they are risky starts even at flex. Edelman was a huge part of NE’s offence and if Amendola is out then I’d make him a definite flex play as he will take the slot position and be the main man in the redzone. If I had to guess the guys most likely to break out from here and be as good as the safe starts are A.Brown, G.Tate, Streeter and V.Brown as they are the number 1 option in their offence and therefore should see a majority of targets.
20+: Hill, Cle WR’s, S.Moss, Morgan, Gibson, DHB, Hemmingway, Kearse, Patterson
Hill was NYJ’s most targeted receiver but a one game sample size with Geno is not enough to be sure he will continue to be. Moss will be hard to predict in this offence because they have a lot of good talent. Morgan, Gibson and DHB should have good games IF they see plenty of playing time. The three rookies here are risky because we haven’t seen everything from them and it’s hard to judge their role. Hemmingway seems to have redzone packages designed for him the way the Chiefs got so excited before the play on Sunday.
DNS: Other NYJ WR’s, Jax WR’s
Geno will run most of the time and I think Hill will be his main guy so I don’t like the others. Until I see a Jacksonville QB be consistent I will steer clear of the Jax WR’s. I wouldn’t drop Shorts but I would bench him this week, if Henne is the QB I am more up on Shorts but I don’t think his value really goes up until Blackmon returns.
TE
Studs: Graham, Gonzalez, Witten, V.Davis
Nothing to say really about these guys other than IF Gronk is active (he likely won’t be) then he will be here as well.
Safe: Cook, Cameron, Olsen, Rudolph, Finley, Daniels, Gates, J.Thomas
Cook and Cameron are likely to be linchpins of their offences passing game while Rudolph and Daniels are redzone threats. Finley, Gates and Thomas are all match up nightmares and should see plenty of targets.
Deep: Dickson, Bennett, F.Davis, Fleener, Allen, Pettigrew, Heap, Myers, Eifert, Gresham, Celek, Z.Miller, Clark
Celek seems to be a big part of a TE friendly offence, Allen and Fleener will take from each other all season, as will Gresham and Eifert, F.Davis is losing work to Reed, I put a lot of faith into Pettigrew but while Bush is healthy I’m not sure Stafford needs him, Bennett and Myers are my favourite from this group to put up consistent numbers and not rely on touchdowns. Dickson, Heap and Miller should all figure heavily in their offences but I don’t see them putting up the huge numbers other could. Clark has the ability to be really good in this offence but Dickson and he will likely split the receptions.
20+: Winslow, Sudfeld, Chandler, Moeaki, Kelce, Walker, Lewis, Clay, Fasano, Rivera, Reed
Sufeld had one target and fumbled it for an interception, if Winslow gets good targets this week I will trust him a lot more. Moeaki, Kelce and Fasano are a group who I need to see more from. If I had to start one I’d go with Fasano. As for the other guys here they are worth watching and if they have big games going after them on the wire to store as trade chips or breakouts.
DEF
Good Defensive Matchups: Baltimore, Chicago, Oakland, Cincinnati
Cleveland looked awful last week so I love Baltimore’s D for a get well game, Ponder is so inconsistent that Chicago’s corners could set records for interceptions if they make him throw a lot by bottling up AP, Jax looked terrible last week and while the Raiders D isn’t as good as the Chiefs I still fancy a couple of picks and a low score, Pitts O-line is a mess so Big Ben will be running for his life meaning sacks and picks for the Bengals D.
Bad Defensive Matchups: San Francisco, Seattle
This could go either way but I see a shootout or a low scoring low turnover game and either way I don’t like either defences in that situation.
Good luck in fantasy week 2 and if you have any questions or recommendations for guys I have ranked too low just use the comments section or the twitter icon below.