The Stanton Trade Situation

When the Marlins pulled off their huge winter fire-sale, the roster was stripped bare, with barely a major league calibre player left in Miami. Except, of course, for young Giancarlo Stanton, who recently became just the 9th player in MLB history with 100 home runs in his first 400 career games. At 23 years old, Stanton is one of the most prized players in baseball, a prodigious slugger with three years of low-cost team control. Of course, to trade for a player like Stanton, any team would have to gut its farm system. So, is Stanton worth the hefty price?

YES

Stanton has incredible raw power, possibly the most in the game today. He is 6 foot 6, and looks every inch of it, and despite missing 39 games last season, he was able to slug 37 homers. Not only that, but his power plays down in a home ballpark as cavernous as Marlins Park, meaning a move to a more friendly home park could make him a perennial 50-homer threat. There are few players in baseball who can match his raw power, and at the age of 23, it’s likely this power will only increase. The .290 average last season also proves he isn’t an all-or-nothing player, whilst his defense in right field is strong and improving. Any team trading for Stanton will have themselves one of the best young hitters in baseball.

Stanton’s power goes further than just the stat-lines. He brings fans to games, as one of the special players that make every at-bat a spectacle. Any trade bringing in Stanton would also attract far more fans to games. His spot in the line-up appears to be the only thing keeping fans going to Miami Marlins games, and any player with 50 homer power is a sure-fire thing for shirt sales. For some big-market teams this may not be such an issue, but for smaller teams like the Pirates, the revenue effects could be noticeable.

Stanton is still cheap. He does hit arbitration next season, and would likely earn around $25-30 million through his three arbitration seasons. For a player of Stanton’s quality, that is extremely cheap and trying to sign him to a long-term contract early may prove cheaper than allowing him to hit free agency. Regardless of his next contract, the three years of control should have teams highly interested, because those three years will take him right up to his prime (and probably a huge pay-day). Unlike other potential trade candidates like David Price, he could help a team for the next few years.

NO

There isn’t much doubt now that when Stanton is on the field, he hits. There are, however, increasing concerns over his ability to stay healthy. He has had problems with both legs, the most recent of which was a hamstring injury. His knees have proven shaky, and there are major durability concerns, which are exacerbated by the fact he is just 23. Stanton is a premium slugger when on the field, but if he can only play 120 games each season, his ceiling is obviously capped. Nowadays, it should be a lot easier to manage these concerns with better conditioning, but injury-plagued 23 year olds aren’t attractive commodities.

Any trade for Stanton would require a team to give up almost all of its top prospects. There aren’t really any comparable trades in major league history, aside perhaps from the Miguel Cabrera trade, but there is little doubt that teams would need to give up three top prospects in return for Stanton. Prospects aren’t sure-things, but if Stanton is unable to stay healthy, a general manager could lose his job for trading away their top talent. The price tag also pushes many major league teams outside the Stanton market, because they don’t have the prospects to offer.

Finally, Stanton has shown a tendency to be streaky in his career so far. This may just be an outcome of random variance, which is to be expected with a power hitter, but both the past two seasons Stanton has got off to a slow start with the bat, hitting four home runs in the past two April’s combined, and there are some questions as to whether the .290 average from last season was legit, or whether we can expect a .260 hitter from now on. Stanton strikes out a lot, although he does take quite a few walks, so if he is unable to make a lot of contact, it’s hard to imagine him being a .300 hitter in the future.

So, we’ve had a look at the pros and cons of trading for Stanton, now let’s take a look at the teams in the market for the young slugger.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers pursuit of a big bat has been well documented, as they aggressively went after Justin Upton in the off-season only to be beaten to the punch by the Braves. They could really do with a big left-handed bat to complement Beltre, but Stanton would be a clear upgrade over David Murphy in the outfield, and could provide them with the fire-power to be favourites for the AL West trophy. The Rangers made it pretty clearly during the winter that they would be unwilling to trade Profar or Andrus, and signing the latter to a six year deal seemed to confirm that. Profar has no spot in the infield at the moment, and would likely be the main piece in any Stanton trade. If they don’t want to trade Profar, then a trade involving Mike Olt, Cody Buckel and Martin Perez may swing it, but even then the Marlins may refuse to listen. If I’m the Rangers, I’m doing everything I can to secure Stanton’s services. The Rangers window for winning may be closing, with Beltre already 34 and several key components getting older. With Stanton in the number four spot, they could contend for seasons to come.

Pittsburgh Pirates

ESPN writer David Schoenfield suggested the Pirates would be wise to make a move for Stanton, and it makes sense in a lot of ways. Aside from Andrew McCutchen, the team is dearly lacking in star potential throughout the line-up, whilst their production from right field has been awful for several years. Stanton wouldn’t just make the team better on his own, but would afford McCutchen more line-up protection, and allow players like Marte and Alvarez to play their own games, rather than worry about carrying the load. Furthermore, the Pirates have a stacked minor league system. Gerrit Cole is the biggest name in the system, especially after an impressive first few starts in the Majors. The Pirates may be wary of trading Cole away, but could still swing a deal with guys like Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco and Alen Hanson in the system. The Pirates were expected to be poor again this season, but with one of the best records in baseball at the moment, it will be fascinating to see if GM Neal Huntington decides to give up the farm and try to win now.

Boston Red Sox

After their firesale midway through last season, the Red Sox were expected to spend big during free agency. Instead, they were shrewd, signing shorter, less expensive contracts, and the gamble appears to have paid off as they sit atop a crowded AL East. Daniel Nava has been surprisingly productive in right field so far this season, but with Ellsbury’s contract expiring this summer, the Sox are in need of a big-name slugger. Stanton would fit the bill, and the team would have the payroll to sign him to a longer contract if they so pleased. It would be pretty cool to see Stanton launching moonshots over the Green Monster too. For the first time in a while, the Red Sox have a good farm system, and may even be able to swing a deal without parting with top prospect Xander Bogaerts. Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa and Jackie Bradley Jr are all potential trade chips, but it’s likely the Marlins will push for Bogaerts in order to part with Stanton.

If I’m the GM of any team, I’m at least giving Loria a call and finding out what he’s asking for. A player of Stanton’s premier quality does not come around very often, and prospects, no matter how big, simply aren’t reliable. When the Marlins traded away Miguel Cabrera in 2007, they received a huge haul of prospects. Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop and Cameron Maybin are the most successful of the bunch, and we’re not talking perennial all-stars there. Stanton has already proven he can crush big-league pitching, and at the age of 23 with several years of control left, there are few better trade options in all of baseball.