NFL Week 5 Predictions

So the real refs are back, and so, it seems, are my prediction talents.

A decent 10-5 effort in week 4 puts me at 33-30 for the year.

But there were still upsets and surprises, the Rams turned over the Seahawks while everyone may have got it wrong on the Vikings, who are 3-1 after beating the Lions. And did the Bears’ destruction of Tony Romo make them contenders? Or was it a flash in the pan?

Here’s my take on week 5.

[BYES: Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers]

Friday 1:20am

Arizona Cardinals 24-16 St Louis Rams

The Cards are 4-0. With Kevin Kolb. In fact, his play was a large contributing factor to last week’s win, so it seems the light may have finally flickered on for the QB. Despite their excellent win against Seattle last week, this could spell trouble for the Rams as Larry Fitzgerald could start posting the kind of numbers we expect from him. One thing the Rams do have though is a sensational rookie kicker. Normally this wouldn’t make a big difference, but Greg Zuerlein kicks field goals from 60 yards for fun, and this takes the pressure off of Sam Bradford and his offense to keep the scoreboard ticking over. This game however, will be decided by defenses, both teams have good units, but the playmaking ability of Patrick Peterson, Darnell Dockett and co. sway this game in the Cardinals favour. Arizona 5-0? No joke.

Sunday 6:00pm

Miami Dolphins 20-23 Cincinnati Bengals

This is an interesting matchup, not least because the Dolphins are much more competitive than many thought. The front 7 on their defense can match up to anyone, and will cause the Bengals problems as they try to establish a run game, but their secondary still needs work. It is almost the opposite with Cincinnati, they can’t stop the run at the moment, allowing 5.4 YPC, while their secondary is gradually improving as players return from injury. This could be a very close game, Reggie Bush could have a big day, as could AJ Green, but I’ll have to go with home advantage.

Green Bay Packers 34-20 Indianapolis Colts

The Pack just squeezed past the 0-4 Saints last week, and you could say that showed weakness, but look closer at the game and you will see that the Packers won despite a 446 yard, 3TD performance from Drew Brees, one of the best of his career. However it is true that Aaron Rodgers’ O-line isn’t helping his performance, and he is getting some stick because of it. This could be the game that he answers his critics, against a poor Indy secondary that receivers Nelson, Jennings, Jones, Cobb and Finley could torch. Andrew Luck will have to play the game of his life to keep up with Green Bay here.

Baltimore Ravens 27-13 Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are seriously considering giving Brady Quinn more action at QB. Ok, Ravens win.

Cleveland Browns 13-33 New York Giants

The problem with the Cleveland Browns is that they seem determined to waste the talent they have in defense, at running back and both on their defensive and offensive lines by making a poor rookie QB carry the team, and until this changes, the Browns won’t win much. The Giants however know how to win, and Eli should lead his team to another victory here, even if the Browns’ defense does prove stubborn for a while.

Philadelphia Eagles 30-23 Pittsburgh Steelers

Two teams with explosive offenses, deep threats and, with the return of Rashard Mendenhall, two running backs who can carry a team, even though their teams seem dead set on not allowing that to happen. While the Steelers have the edge with their wide receivers, the Eagles defense is light years ahead of the Steelers’ D right now, and that could be the deciding factor in this one. If Pittsburgh could stop the run like the old days, that could make a difference, but I think Philly sneak another win here if Michael Vick can avoid turning the ball over too much.

Atlanta Falcons 41-30 Washington Redskins

Wow, isn’t RG3 special. He put together a game winning drive without a functioning comms set in his helmet, so he called the plays in a no-huddle offense with 1 minute to go in the game. Despite his constant brilliance, there is no disguising that the Redskins’ defense is an absolute train wreck without Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher, so expect Matt Ryan to continue his great start to the year. Personally, I think he could throw for 400 yards and 4 TD’s this Sunday, and he may well need to, because the Falcons’ defense is beginning to miss Brent Grimes, a defense that so far, has been masked by the brilliance of their offence. Cam Newton almost beat the Falcons last week, and they will have to be careful not to make the same mistakes against a similar type of QB in Griffin, who has the potential to keep this game closer than you might think.

Sunday 9:05pm

Seattle Seahawks 16-19 Carolina Panthers

Seattle will be furious about coming off the win against Green Bay and being rolled over by the Rams, so expect a reaction from their defense. But it is not their D that worries me. Seattle’s offense, apart from Marshawn Lynch, is totally devoid of top level talent, and struggles to put points on the board on a consistent basis. This could end up being a very low scoring game, even with Cam Newton involved, but if the Panthers can stop Lynch, they have so much more offensively than the Seahawks do, and should edge this one at home.

Chicago Bears 31-10 Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bears were massively impressive in routing Tony Romo and Dallas, and coming off a short week, they will expect to carry that form into Jacksonville, where the Jags’ defense is looking shaky, not a good sign when your only offensive weapon is MJD. If the Chicago offensive line can keep improving, Brandon Marshall will continue his good form and Matt Forte will be looking to get back into the groove after his ankle injury. Jones Drew will try to keep his team in the game for as long as possible, but with the way the Chicago defense is playing right now, Blaine Gabbert could quickly undo any good work MJD does.

Sunday 9:25pm

Tennessee Titans 17-24 Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have somehow got themselves to 3-1, beating the 49’ers and the Lions in successive weeks, so this can’t be a fluke. The defense stops the run and rushes the passer well, while having Percy Harvin adds an x-factor to both offense and on special teams. The Titans look to have lost Jake Locker for a while now, and Matt Hasselbeck has a job on his hands, even though he has an above-average receiving corps. CJ2K returned to form last week, but I fear a drop back into mediocrity this weekend against the Vikings front 7. The Titans’ D has been a huge disappointment this year, and I think that continues with a big day for AP on the ground. The Vikings could be 4-1, wow.

Denver Broncos 27-37 New England Patriots

After the Pats blew away Buffalo in the 2nd half on Sunday, all the questions regarding the offense faded away, but it is the improving play of the offensive line that makes the Patriots a real danger, any time Tom Brady gets in the pocket is lethal. However the hamstring injury to Dont’a Hightower could be a big one, even though it looks like Bobby Carpenter will come back into the fold. Peyton Manning looks more like his old self after a crushing defeat of the Raiders and will undoubtedly cause the Pats problems, but I think New England will want to start well and make Manning chase the game, which could cause mistakes and turnovers. This Patriots team now has an offense that can do absolutely everything, it’s impossible to stop, they can run the ball well, throw short, medium and deep routes and their TE’s? Gronk and Hernandez (who could be back this week) are the best in the business. Good luck in stopping them when they average 438 yards per game.

Buffalo Bills 13-30 San Francisco 49’ers

The Niners were back on top form last week, shutting out the Jets, while the Bills were losing to the 50-point Pats, with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 4 interceptions. You can’t do that against the 49’ers. The Bills may as well rest Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller this week, just to make sure they don’t get hurt again.

Monday 1:20am

San Diego Chargers 27-30 New Orleans Saints

Another interesting contest, and one where Drew Brees will be hoping his defense can step up and make at least a couple of plays. He threw for 446 yards and 3TD’s last week and still lost the game against Green Bay, that tells you that Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has to step up to the plate, big time. The Chargers are quietly sliding along, currently at 3-1 without doing anything special at all. They rank 24th on offense and 12th on defense, so they seem a solid, average unit, nothing more than that. I can’t have the Saints going 0-5, it’s just not right, so I’ll take New Orleans to improve on defense at home and finally sneak a win.

Tuesday 1:30am

Houston Texans 37-6 New York Jets

Stick a fork in the Jets, they’re done. With Darelle Revis out for the season and Santonio Holmes seemingly following him, Gang Green’s prospects for the season look as good as if you had gangrene. If they scored 0 points with Holmes last week, they could well do the same again, but it’s a low probability. We could well see Tim Tebow for longer this week, as Rex Ryan needs to find some way to stop the fans rioting after what will be another horrible defeat for the Jets, to a team arguably better than the 49’ers. As for the Texans, get them all in your fantasy team, Schaub, Foster, Tate, Johnson, Daniels, Graham, Texans’ D. All of them, this could be really nasty on Monday Night Football.