NFL Divisional Championship predictions
Here we are, after 20 weeks of football, down to the final four in the race for the Vince Lombardi trophy. Last week’s Divisional round provided the entertainment, thrills and spills that we always come to expect in the playoffs, with Atlanta kicking a last-minute field goal to beat a gutsy Seattle and Baltimore taking Denver to double overtime before destroying Peyton Manning’s dreams of another Superbowl. San Francisco and New England’s victories were more comfortable affairs, but that doesn’t mean that they are shoe-in’s for the big one in New Orleans.
Let’s start this look at the Championship games with the NFC battle in the Georgia Dome…
Sunday 8:00pm
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
All the build-up this week has been about Colin Kaepernick, and rightly so. The second-year QB has given the 49ers an offense that is now almost as threatening as its physical, dominating defense. Atlanta has to have a plan to try and keep Kaepernick in the pocket, but it can’t forget the bread and butter of stopping the run first, and I think the real decider in this one will be the play of Frank Gore.
If the San Francisco running back goes for 100+ yards, then the 49ers should win this game. The Falcons’ run defense has been relatively poor throughout the season, so Gore should feel confident of racking up some yards behind what is almost unanimously seen as the best offensive line in football. Gore is consistent, but he rarely has a ‘breakout’ game where he runs all over an opponent. The Niners would love it to happen on Sunday though.
For Atlanta offensively, it is absolutely crucial that they balance their offense and keep faith in the run game, especially now that Michael Turner seems to have rediscovered a little of that ‘Burner’ fire that he used to have. If they become one-dimensional and attempt to throw all over the physical secondary of San Francisco, Matt Ryan is going to make a mistake or two, any of which could prove fatal to the Falcons. Jaquizz Rodgers could be invaluable in the screen game and on checkdowns, and Matt Ryan would be wise to use him instead of risking deep balls to his big receivers.
I can see the Falcons going for the big play early and often in this one, and while they might get one, there will be a mistake on one too, and that will be one mistake too many as the Atlanta defense struggles to deal with the ridiculous mobility of Kaepernick, especially on the fast-track of the Geordia Dome turf, and Frank Gore pounding the rock down their throats.
Verdict: 49ers 34 Falcons 24
Sunday 11:30pm
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Its Brady vs Lewis in the AFC Championship game for the second year running, but this time, it’s for more than just a place in the Superbowl and the AFC Championship trophy, #52’s career is on the line. This fact alone, like last week, will make the Ravens fight with everything they’ve got, but let’s not go overboard with the circumstances here and just look at the key factor in this game: Baltimore’s ability to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense doing what it wants to do, even without Rob Gronkowski.
The stalwarts of this Ravens’ D are getting older, and Ed Reed showed his age last week when absolutely disappearing against the Broncos, and if he does that again at Foxboro’, the Ravens will have to throw a lot of deep balls to keep up with Brady. Look for Brady to target the mismatch in the middle of the field with Ray Lewis on Aaron Hernandez, the tight end’s power and quickness will frustrate Lewis all day long, so the Ravens may choose to double him with a safety as an insurance policy. Brady’s choice of weapons was illustrated to the full when RB Shane Vereen caught 85 yards worth of passes for two TD’s and ran one in as well last week, and this diverse range of options for Brady means that he will find a mismatch on the field on almost every play.
Even though the Pats will score 4 TD’s in this game, the Ravens still have a chance to win if they can find Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin deep, early and often. They caused the Pats fits when they lost in Baltimore early on in the season, and they will have to do so again, even though I feel that Belichick will employ the ‘bend but don’t break’ defense here, allowing a lot underneath with line-backers in short coverage, but making sure his safeties stay deep to stop the long pass. This could open the game up for Ray Rice, which would be a very threatening proposition for the Patriots, but with Vince Wilfork playing at a stupidly high level right now and New England probably scoring points left, right and centre, he may not be used enough to affect the game.
While the Ravens were a field goal away this time last year, their kicker has improved, and so has their offense, but the key in this game is their defense, which seems to have taken a large downward step. Tom Brady will have noticed.
Verdict: Ravens 31 Patriots 41