If the season ended today – NFC edition

by UK American Sports Fans

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With two games left the overall playoff picture is much more complicated that it seems. The NFC is a little tamer with most things set in stone, but some excitement could develop in the NFC South and there are some major fireworks that could go off in the NFC East. The six teams currently in the playoff spots look fairly safe to stay in these playoff positions and there are scenarios next week that would solidify the NFC playoff picture with a game remaining. The following are the playoff positions if the season ended today along with where it seems teams will be come the end of week seventeen.

NFC

First Seed: Green Bay Packers 13-1.

Two games clear of San Francisco and New Orleans the Pack just need to win against either the Bears or the Lions to clinch the first seed. Since the Bears, currently, are terrible and the Lions could clinch a wild card next week, so may rest players, I’d say the Pack have a 100% chance of staying at the one seed.

Second Seed: San Francisco 49ers 11-3.

San Fran have the second seed thanks to a better conference win percentage and so control their own destiny. If they win out which is highly possible with their last two games being against Seattle and St Louis they would secure that second seed for the playoffs. I give them an 80% chance of winning out, but they won’t drop further than the third seed even if they can’t. They’d need a miracle to take the number one seed.

Third Seed: New Orleans Saints 11-3.

The Saints finish the season with two big divisional games against the Falcons and Panthers who will be looking, if nothing else, to upset the Saints’ seeding. Chances are they lose one of these games, but even if they win out San Francisco should also win out, so there’s a slim chance they make the jump, 20% at best. New Orleans ought to be the third seed. The game on Sunday against the Falcons is huge, with Atlanta being able to clinch the sixth seed and maybe make a push for a last minute division steal.

Fourth Seed: Dallas Cowboys 8-6.

This is where it gets juicy. The NFC East finishes with a bang. The Cowboys’ last two games are against the Eagles and the Giants but Dallas controls its destiny. A win next week and it’s all over, they take the division. The ‘Boys still have a high 55% chance but (I think) will ultimately rue the October 30th beat down giving the Eagles the edge. A loss next week and the week after and it’s all over thanks to a poor divisional record. Either way this division ends with fireworks (unless Dallas win next week, then its boring and ends there).

Wild Cards

Fifth seed: Atlanta Falcons 9-5.

Atlanta has a huge game against the Saints this week. If they win they’d have clinched the fifth seed, since they have the head to head victory over the Lions, but it opens a possibility to win the division in the final week with a Saints loss. The Lions take on a surging San Diego team, which could still win the AFC West, and a Detroit loss would put the fifth seed out of reach for them. If both teams lose this week, in the last game, the Falcons play a struggling Tampa side that has fired and re-hired their coach. They should win that game big taking the fifth seed. It seems hard to imagine anything else – 80% chance (with a cheeky 10% they win the South).

Sixth seed – Detriot Lions 9-5.

Since Atlanta has the head to head in this match up, Detroit’s only option to move up is with an Atlanta loss. I think both teams lose next week, and then dismantle their week seventeen opponents. This wont be good enough for Detroit and I can’t see them taking the fifth seed. All eyes will be in Louisiana next week where this race could end, and even if it doesn’t Detroit face a tough test, even at home, against San Diego. It’s not looking good for the Lions with a 20% chance of moving up. The good news is that I don’t see them losing two games risking a last second playoff grab from any of the chasing 7-7 teams, they ought to take care of business against the Packers (who will probably rest players) in week seventeen and round out the NFC playoffs teams.

Chasing Pack

Seattle Seahawks 7-7.

It’s not looking good for any of the teams chasing a wild card spot. The only way to get into the party is with two loses from the wildcards. The Falcons have it toughest with the Saints and a match with Tampa. There’s a chance they could lose to Tampa and that’s what Seattle have to be hoping for. Detroit could beat San Diego next week but even if they fall short will be playing a resting Packers team. Long story short, it’s not good. A game against San Francisco this week really doesn’t help things either. 2% chance.

Chicago Bears 7-7.

If it’s not looking good for the healthy teams in the chase, it’s really not looking good for the Bears. They may be getting Forte or Cutler back at some point this season (maybe postseason), shame Hanie has ruined any chance the Bears may have had. 0%, Green Bay needs a win next week to clinch, so this one has no chance.

New York Giants 7-7.

For New York, it’s fairly simple. As long as Dallas loses this week, a win in the next two games and they are in the post season. It’s a shame they’ve gone cold all of a sudden. The good news is Dallas sucks in December and the Jets are terrible currently but desperate, and they seem to play best when desperate. Under normal circumstances the Giants win this game after getting Bradshaw back but it could be close. A Giants win eliminates Phillie. Even if the Giants beat the Jets, if the ‘Boys win this week the Giants are out, and need to hope for an impossible situation to get a wild card birth.

Arizona Cardinals 7-7.

How great would it be for the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, the Falcons to lose their last two games and it to be down to the final Seahawks vs. Cards match up? How are the Cards even in this position?  Super Skelton. Shame the chances of this happening are slim (and I’d prefer the Falcons/Lions in the playoffs anyway). Sorry Skelton 1% you’ll be going to the post season.

Philadelphia Eagles 6-8.

Somehow the Eagles are still in this race. They’re lagging behind and are hoping for a fall or two, but it’s really not impossible; it’s actually very possible. The Eagles play Dallas, a team that is appalling in December while the Phillie are currently red hot, if they win they’d then be rooting for a New York win against Dallas in the final week. As long as every team is 8-8 the Eagles own the tiebreakers. None of this matters if the Giants beats the Jets on Sunday, and that game is the early match, so the Eagles could be eliminated before Sunday’s even really started. Still, it’s a 15% chance they make it and how crazy would it be if they do it.