Don’t be trapped by fantasy trends

Something that surprises me every year is how low or high certain players are perceived to be after having abnormal seasons.

In 2007, on average, no quarterbacks were taken in the top 10 of fantasy drafts; a total of six were picked in the top 50. In 2008, the year after Tom Brady and Randy Moss’ record breaking season, Brady went in the top 10 (up from 33rd) and Randy Moss was picked, on average, with the 8th overall pick. You needed to wait until pick 15 in 2007 to see a WR taken from the board . QBs didn’t take a huge leap, six were still picked in the top 50, same as 2007 – but did one season warrant such a leap?

It’s understandable after two record-breaking seasons to think that these players will have another great season – but to have another record-breaking season? In reality Brady tore his ACL in his first game and Moss, now being thrown to by Matt Cassel, was not the statistical machine he had been in ’07 and disappointed owners in ‘08.

Players rise and fall based on several circumstances, one factor of course being how well they did the season before. Expectations must always be realistic though, no one can think that Gronkowski, Graham and the other monster tight ends will have seasons like that had this year. They will probably be fantasy beasts, don’t get me wrong, but this moment several defensive coaches are sitting in dark rooms figuring out ways to stop them and the other athletic TEs. It doesn’t mean they will – Calvin Johnson has been a beast all his life, no one’s figured out a way to slow Megatron yet – same could be true for Gronk and Graham.The Patriots have signed a bunch of deep threat WRs, this could open even more space for Gronk – just will it be the 1300 yards, 17 TDs he had last year…or the 546 yards and 10 TDs he had as a rookie? Equally, Graham’s production relies on how Brees deals with his contract and how the Saints deal with bounty gate. He’s currently going at the top of the 3rd round in mock drafts – only four wide receivers are being predicted ahead of him. Gronkowski is being taken in the 2nd, with three WRs ahead of him. It’s true that there are few elite tight ends, but it seems a lot to give up considering that no tight end has ever been predicted (on an average) higher than the 4th round…we’ve never seen tight ends like this before though.

Another player who’s set records this year is Cam Newton. He’s currently being predicted going at the top of the 2nd, and as the fourth QB to be taken overall –the obvious big three being taken ahead of him. As a running QB he gets a massive boost on game day – but plays for a fairly awful team, and a team now that might be able to compete with the lower half, leaving Newton with a lot less garbage time at the end of games. In a win Newton throws for 191 yards on average but in a loss? He was averaging almost 300 yards a game. Newton has a lot of stats on his side however. In ten losses he averaged 1.7 interceptions a game and in wins he averaged a massive 108.8 QB rating. He’s worthy of a high QB pick, and while 18th overall is a little bit too high (depending on how much you think the sophomore slump will affect him and the Panthers) others have him higher. I have friends who want to take Newton as the first QB off the board and one or two who would take him with the number one pick. That’s just crazy.

These are just three high profile players. Hundreds can be found in the later rounds, players who have had a few good games, games they probably will not have next year due to luck or defensive coaches taking them away. This is not me saying avoid every player who had done well or set records. Peyton Manning threw for the same number of TDs and increased his yards, while reducing his interceptions the year after being rookie MVP. Imagine if Newton could do both of those AND increase his rushing yards and rushing TDs? Surely that would make him the number one QB in fantasy football.

A with everything fantasy you can only speculate. We might be on the verge of a TE breaking 2000 yards and scoring over 20 TDs in one season– we might also see TEs become completely useless a teams use a new coverage formation. Neither is that likely – just don’t fall for trend based purely on “if they scored this many this year, they have to score as many or even more next year”.