Don’t mock me

31 Teams and 32 picks make up round 1 of the NFL Draft for 2011, taking place around 12pm GMT on Thursday night, Friday morning (28/29 April). And this writer for one, is nothing short of beside himself. And what makes it more exciting, is that I know America doesn’t play by the rules. Forget predictability, forget the obvious and embrace the unexpected. Add to the mix how the current lockout may affect the thinking behind the picks, and then thank the history books that the UK isn’t a republic, as William and Kate’s impending nuptials mean it is pizza and beer for most of us, with a Friday morning alarm call off the agenda.

My heart was pumping in a recent fantasy baseball draft, and whilst I was pleased with my forward thinking and my ability to react to a forced late change in my game plan, it was intense. And whilst each franchise’s war room team have done as much preparation as they can, they know they can’t playout every possibility, and they can never recreate the big game atmosphere of the live draft.

Maybe the most pressure this time around is on Trent Baalke and the San Francisco 49ers with the most picks in the draft at 12, and their first pick option at #7. Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis and Michael Crabtree are four of the 49ers first picks in recent years,and with the exception of the cloud hanging over Smith, the other three will have a big say in the fortunes of the Bay Area franchise in the next NFL season. Patrick Peterson or Blaine Gabbert seem to be the two favourite options amongst mock drafts, if they are both available to take seventh. The Cardinals and the Bengals may both have something to say on where Peterson and Gabbert play pro football though.

The aforementioned Alex Smith, and JaMarcus Russell are two examples of Quarterbacks drafted at #1 who have failed to live up to the expectations. And expectations could not be any higher than those that rest on the shoulders of the soon to be a Carolina Panther, Cam Newton. But he has the history of flops to soften the blow, as let’s face it, none of us are surprised anymore if the Heisman Trophy winner disappears in to the ether within a couple of seasons. Referring back to San Francisco, they are clearly in the market for a QB, and yet they have 2002 #1 draft pick David Carr on their books. Opinion is so divided on Newton that whatever becomes of him, someone will be able to say “I told you so”. What I have found surprising is that Jake Locker hasn’t featured at all in the first round of a lot of mock drafts. He has too much potential to find himself in round 2, and with the on and off lockout, this aint no ordinary draft.

There’s no guaranteed free agency period on its way, hands are going to be very clammy in the war rooms. Maybe ‘Mr Irrelevant’ will become more prevalent. Newton, Dareus and Miller, that’s the top three across the media, and it is a very consistent top three in mock drafts. But as early as the #4 pick there is dissention amongst commentators. Fantastic, fasten your seat belts. And if Newton, Dareus or Miller don’t go in the top three, there will be screaming coming from the bunkers of the 28 to follow in the first round, as the fun begins and the cool heads begin to steam.